Opening Shinies feels good, even if you’ll never catch ’em all.
By Peter Day|
Published Jan 26, 2024|
5 min read
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To prepare for the release of Paldean Fates on January 26, 2024, The TCGplayer Authentication Center opened more than 1,500 booster packs.
Like Scarlet & Violet—151 last year, Paldean Fates is a special Pokémon set and gets to bend the rules of what those typically look like. The gimmick this time is that while Paldean Fates only has an advertised 91 cards in the set (which are made of Commons, Uncommons, Rares, and Double Rares), an additional 154 cards are Secret Rares with collector numbers higher than the set number. It’s like if an album was 60% bonus tracks.
These Secret Rare cards include four rarities we’ve seen before in the Scarlet & Violet Series (Ultra Rares, Illustration Rares, Special Illustration Rares, and Hyper Rares), as well as two rarities that are back for the first time since The Pokémon Company revamped the rarity system at the start of Scarlet & Violet: Shiny Rares and Shiny Ultra Rares. Hidden Fates (2019) and Shining Fates (2021) both enticed collectors with dozens of alternate-colored “Shiny” Pokémon to collect, and Paldean Fates is here to do it again.
Shiny Rares and Shiny Ultra Rares make up a ludicrous 132 of the 154 Secret Rares in Paldean Fates. You’ll find a Shiny Pokémon card in the first Reverse Holo slot of roughly 1 in 3 Paldean Fates booster packs, but the sheer number of Shiny cards in the set means that collecting all of them on your own is close to impossible. After our first 1,500 packs, a few Shiny Rare Pokémon had still managed to completely evade the TCGplayer Authentication Center.
The steady rate at which Paldean Fates gives out Shinies, combined with the endless number of Shinies to collect, make Paldean Fates feel generous even while it always leaves you wanting more. Open a few packs and you’re very likely to find a hit—it just probably won’t be the hit you’re looking for.
Here’s a more in-depth look at the pull rates in Paldean Fates. All the numbers below represent your odds per pack (not e.g. “per box”). We used a 95% confidence interval to generate all the percentage ranges like “15.89% ± 1.69%”. The “Per X Packs” numbers are much less precise, and are just meant to make the percentages easier to grok. The odds on specific cards of each rarity assume an equal population of each card at that rarity.
Note: Your personal experience will vary—that’s how randomized booster packs work!
| Rarity | Pull Rate (95% Confidence Interval) | Rounded Pull Rate (Per X Packs) |
|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 15.89% ± 1.69% | 1 in 6 Packs |
| Ultra Rare | 6.61% ± 1.15% | 1 in 15 Packs |
| Shiny Rare | 25.44% ± 2.01% | 1 in 4 Packs |
| Shiny Ultra Rare | 7.72% ± 1.23% | 1 in 13 Packs |
| Illustration Rare | 7.22% ± 1.20% | 1 in 14 Packs |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.72% ± 0.60% | 1 in 58 Packs |
| Hyper Rare | 1.61% ± 0.58% | 1 in 62 Packs |
